Verified Football Picks Record
Public, time-stamped record of football proposition bet picks settled since January 2025. All-time ROI: +17.1% over 1214 picks. Record 748-458. Independently mirrored on the Blogabet ledger.
Showing the 100 most recently played picks.
| Date | League | Match | Selection | Odds | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | World Cup | Türkiye vs Paraguay | Odds are around 1.5-1.6 elsewhere. Most reports are saying that Yildiz is fit to start from the 1st minute after playing only the 2nd half against Australia as he was preserved due to a calf injury. Yildiz is 6/12 Over 1.5 Fouls Won and 9/12 Over 0.5 Fouls Won in the last national team games where he started. Paraguay is a team that has committed 13.9 fouls on average in the last 20 games. | 2.05 | WON | +1.05 |
| 2026-06-20 | World Cup | Türkiye vs Paraguay | 22.5 at 1.93 at Betano is also playable. Maybe I'm stubborn but I'm once again going with an over on a Turkey's game. What we saw against Australia - 4 fouls for Turkey in a 4:12 game was a consequence of Turkey failing to break Australia's defence and falling behind early on. Paraguay had a bad game against USA and if they produce the same performance Turkey will be able to break them earlier in the game. This will mean that the Turks will reduce the pressure, Paraguay will try to attack more and we should see more fouls in midfield. More or less what we saw in Paraguay's game vs USA where we saw 30 fouls (17 for Paraguay). Ivan Barton from Salvador is refereeing - sparse data for him on the national team's stage but the data still shows that he's averaging 30+ fouls per game | 1.75 | WON | +0.75 |
| 2026-06-20 | World Cup | Brazil vs Haiti | Vinicius is 7/11 over this line, against Morocco he was fouled for the 2nd time in 90+1 but earlier in the 54th minute there was another situation where he was actually fouled but Slavko Vincic let the play continue as the ball reached another Brazilian player. Haiti is averaging 14.7 fouls and they are coming from a 44-foul game against Scotland where they contributed with 23 fouls. Carlens Arcus should be playing on the right side of defence against Vinicius - Arcus had 3 fouls against Scotland | 1.9 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | World Cup | Scotland vs Morocco | 1.80 at Altenar bookies. El Aynaoui had 4 fouls against Brazil and has covered this line in 5/10 for Morocco which means that he regularly gets 2 fouls even against weaker African opposition. Scottish direct style of play should result in more fouls. | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-06-19 | World Cup | Scotland vs Morocco | Odds are 2.00 or lower at other places. Hakimi will face the most fouled Scottish player - John McGinn and Andy Robertson should also be a threat for him. Obviously Hakimi is a world class player but he covered this line in the last 3 games for Morocco which also happened to be against opponents stronger than the average African team - Brazil (3), Nigeria (3), Cameroon (2). | 2.25 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | World Cup | Scotland vs Morocco | Scotland is 10/20 over this line and they are coming from a 44-foul game against Haiti where the Scots committed 21 fouls. Morocco is 15/20 over 25.5 and they are coming from a 30-foul game against Brazil. Tantashev from Uzbekistan is refereeing - he's just 2/8 over the line in national team games but he's mostly refereed low intensity games between Asian teams. | 1.8 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | World Cup | Mexico vs South Korea | Also available at other Alternar-powered bookies. Odds dropped to 1.72 at Bet365 and 1.75 at Betano. This line underestimates the attacking power of South Korea. They had 15 shots against the Czechs and have covered the line in 16/20 (of course this includes games against easier opposition in Asia. Even against South Africa there were visible cracks in Mexico's defense which South Korea's fast players could exploit | 1.92 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Xhaka has 18 shots in his last 12 games for Switzerland, 16 of them are outside the box, he has covered the 1.5 line in 6/12. He had 2 shots against Qatar (again both outside the box) and today it's more or less a must-win for Switzerland against the physical team of Bosnia that will defend for most of the time. So Xhaka should get shot opportunities. 1.82 at Betano and elsewhere | 1.83 | WON | +0.83 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | There's a clear pattern when Ermedin Demirovic starts for Bosnia - opponents central defenders are getting fouled as Demirovic is making quite a lot of fouls (he's covered the 2.5 line in 9/14 games for Bosnia). Canada's both central defenders got fouled (4 + 1), against Wales both got fouled, against Italy Calafiori and Mancini got fouled 3 times (Bastoni was sent off after just 41 minutes so didn't play much). | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | There's a clear pattern when Ermedin Demirovic starts for Bosnia - opponents central defenders are getting fouled as Demirovic is making quite a lot of fouls (he's covered the 2.5 line in 9/14 games for Bosnia). Canada's both central defenders got fouled (4 + 1), against Wales both got fouled, against Italy Calafiori and Mancini got fouled 3 times (Bastoni was sent off after just 41 minutes so didn't play much). | 1.87 | WON | +0.87 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Czechia vs South Africa | Krejčí continued his streak covering this line in the 1st game of the tournament so he's now 14/15. Obviously South Africa should be an easier opponent that South Korea but Krejčí managed to cover against Faroe Islands and Girbraltar so this shouldn't be much different. | 1.82 | WON | +0.82 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Czech Republic vs South Africa | A must win for the Czechs and South Africa didn't impress against Mexico + will be missing 2 players due to red cards. Set pieces are one of the Czechs main strengths and they have covered the 4.5 corner line in 12/13 of their last official games. Even though South Africa's corner average is quite close to those of the Czech's (5.9 vs 5.8) and South Africa also concedes very few corners we can't ignore the fact that their stats were achieved against weaker opposition than the teams from Europe. | 1.98 | WON | +0.98 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Uzbekistan vs Colombia | I think this line underestimates Uzbekistan that has players like Shomurodov and Fayzulaev from Basaksehir up front and Khusanov from Man City in defence. Uzbekistan covered 7.5 in 18/20 offical games and Colombia opponents covered 7.5 in 16/20. Obviously different class levels across Asia and South America but we saw last night that Jordan and Iraq reached 11-12 shots against good teams like Austria and Norway. Uzbekistan also covered 12.5 in 16/20. | 1.98 | WON | +0.98 |
| 2026-06-18 | World Cup | Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Big odds difference - 1.44 at Bet365, 1.50 at EGT-powered, 1.54 at Altenar-powered. Davinson Sanchez had 1 shot in each of the last 2 friendlies for Colombia against Jordan and Costa Rica and he even scored against Costa Rica. He had 11 shots, all of them headers, in the 15 official games prior to that, covering 0.5 in 6/15. His physical power should be a big asset against the Uzbek defence. | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | World Cup | England vs Croatia | England is 16/20 under this line, Croatia is 13/20 under this line. The referee Clement Turpin is 10/14 under 23.5 in his last national team games. We have two good European teams and a referee who doesn't like interrupting the flow of play in the 1st game of a long tournament. | 1.75 | WON | +0.75 |
| 2026-06-17 | World Cup | Portugal vs DR Congo | 2.00 at Altenar-powered bookies, 1.85 at EGT-powered. Cristiano averages 1 shot every 17 minutes when playing for Portugal. He's covered the 4.5 line in 11/20 and the 3.5 line in 15/20. Even though he's 41 he's amassed these stats against stronger opponents than DR Congo. Golden sub is on if he doesn't get enough playing time | 1.9 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | World Cup | Portugal vs DR Congo | This is mostly an insurance bet for the Bruno Fernandes fouls - what we are seeing so far is that African teams are much less aggressive against the favourites. Portugal games are only 3/20 over 24.5 and despite DR Congo's stats and Jassim being the referee I believe that Portugal controlling the ball in big periods of the game should allow this to stay under. If this goes over it would mean that DR Congo probably makes 14-15 fouls which should lead to Fernandes covering 1.5 fouls won | 1.75 | WON | +0.75 |
| 2026-06-17 | World Cup | Portugal vs DR Congo | Bruno Fernandes is the 2nd most fouled player on the Portuguese team - 12 fouls suffered in the last 12 games. Bet365 is offering just 1.72 for this market. DR Congo is a team that averages 15+ fouls per game + the referee Jassim is averaging 31+ fouls per game. | 2.22 | WON | +1.22 |
| 2026-06-17 | World Cup | Portugal vs DR Congo | Portugal averaged 3.4 corners in the 1st half in its last 20 games and conceded 1.9 corners in those 1st halves. They have covered the 2.5 line in 13/20 of those cases. And obviously this was against European opponents most of them stronger than DR Congo. | 2 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | World Cup | Argentina vs Algeria | Mac Allister has roughly the same minutes per getting fouled as his teammates like de Paul and Fernandez that are getting much lower odds - 48 minutes per foul vs 44 for de Paul vs 45 for Fernandez. Algeria is averaging 15.8 fouls per game in their last 20 games while Argentina is suffering 14.9 fouls per game, so a good match up. The referee Marciniak is rather average in terms of fouls, so nothing special. | 1.72 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | World Cup | France vs Senegal | Theo Hernandez is the 2nd most fouled player in the French team in terms of total fouls - 22 fouls over the last 2 years. During Euro 2024 he was 6/6 covering the 1.5 line and he's also 12/14 covering the 0.5 line in the last 14 games he played for France. Averages 1.7 Fouls Won in the Saudi league last season. Facing a team like Senegal that averages 15+ fouls per game with Krepin Diatta on the right side with 17 fouls in 14 games for Senegal, this looks like a good match up for Hernandez to cover again. Faghani is not the ideal referee for fouls but he's also not the worst one. | 1.98 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | World Cup | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | 1.80 at Betano. Uruguay is 13/20 over this line, Saudi Arabia is 9/20 over. The referee Maurizio Mariani is 6/12 over in national team games. If we have a look at a lower line like 20.5 we'll see that Uruguay is 19/20, Saudi Arabia is 13/20 and Mariani is 8/12 - so the teams and the referee consistently go in the 20s and this being a bigger forum should result in a few more fouls. | 1.85 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | World Cup | Spain vs Cape Verde | Half stakes. Laporte is 5/20 over 1.5 shots in his last 20 games but these stats are accumulated against stronger opponents in Europe. See my other pick about over 0.5 shots for more details. | 3.9 | WON | +1.45 |
| 2026-06-15 | World Cup | Spain vs Cape Verde | Odds for this market are in the 1.28-1.33 range elsewhere (Bet365, EGT-powered and Altenar-powered bookies). Laporte has 13 shots in total (9 of them headers) in his last 20 games for Spain, covering the 0.5 line in 8/20. When playing for Athletic Bilbao he has again 13 shots in total (10 of them headers) in his last 20 games for Athletic. Obviously these stats are accumulated against stronger opponents than Cape Verde and today he should have more chances to shoot. | 1.62 | WON | +0.62 |
| 2026-06-15 | World Cup | Spain vs Cape Verde | Spain conceded an average of 2.9 shots on target in its last 20 official games and Cabo Verde is averaging 3.3 shots on target. Much more stronger European teams couldn't cover this line against Spain so it should be a difficult task for Cabo Verde as well. We should see the usual possession dominance by Spain leaving very few chances for Cabo Verde to attack | 1.98 | WON | +0.98 |
| 2026-06-15 | World Cup | Sweden vs Tunisia | Huge odds difference compared to the other bookmakers - Bet365 offers 1.44 making Hannibal the player with the lowest odds from both teams. Altenar-powered bookmakers offer 1.41, and EGT-powered offer 1.57. It's quite unlikely that all of them are wrong and Betano is right. Otherwise when playing for Tunisia Hannibal is usually on the receiving ends of Fouls, suffering 31 fouls and committing only 6 in his last 13 games for the national team. When playing for Burnley he had a nice streak to finish the season - 13 fouls total in his last 7 games. Obviously other bookmakers and the markets expect Hannibal to be more aggressive than usual against a very different opponent than the African teams that Hannibal's national team games stats are based so far. | 2.37 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | World Cup | Sweden vs Tunisia | No referee announcement yet. Tunisia is 17/20 over this line and while Sweden is usually the more aggressive team in their games and commit more fouls but Tunisia is coming as the team with most fouls in the last 3 years of all the 48 participants. So I'd rather take them than the total. | 2.05 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | World Cup | Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | No referee announcement yet. The line opened at 10.5 and is already going up. Ivory Coast opponents are 10/17 over this line while Ecuador is 15/20 over. I expect a tactical game where eventually both teams might settle for a draw given the other opponents in the group. | 1.83 | WON | +0.83 |
| 2026-06-14 | World Cup | Australia vs Turkey | No referee announcement yet but this line looks low. First games of the tournament tend to be more tactical, with more minor fouls and I expect Australia to employ a more physical style against Turkey which would force the Turks to make more fouls as well. Australia games are 9/20 over this line, Turkey's games are 12/20 over. | 1.8 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | World Cup | Haiti vs Scotland | Same market is at 2.00 at Altenar-powered bookies, but unlike Betano and Bet365 they don't provide "Golden Sub". 1.80 at Bet365. So it's up to personal preference whether to play the higher odds without "Golden Sub". Arcus is expected to start as a right back for Haiti facing the Scottish left flank featuring John McGinn who's been winning 2.93 fouls per game in his last 15 games for Scotland, covering 2.5 fouls won in 10/15. Add to this Andy Robertson also being on the left side and the task for Arcus becomes really, really difficult. Arcus himself has covered 1.5 only in 5/12 in his last Haiti games but he's covered 0.5 in 11/12. | 1.87 | WON | +0.87 |
| 2026-06-13 | World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco | Vinicius has covered this line in 7 out of his last 11 games for Brazil. Facing a team like Morocco that averages around 14 fouls per game and with Slavko Vincic as referee who usually gives fouls quite easily the odds seem too high. Bet365 is offering just 1.44 for the same line | 1.87 | WON | +0.87 |
| 2026-06-13 | World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco | No referee announcement yet but the lines for Brazil and Morocco just look swapped. Yes, in some cases it makes sense to have the favourite with higher lines but I don't think it's the right thing for this game. Brazil opponents are 16/20 over 11.5, Morocco is 14/20 over 11.5 | 1.75 | WON | +0.75 |
| 2026-06-13 | World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco | Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach but Brazil's squad looks like it's the weakest in generations - nowhere near the great talent they had in the 1990s and 2000s. Even if Ancelotti is able to do a miracle, he'll do it with pragmatic football. Morocco is a very tough team and their success at the last World Cup was no coincidence. Brazil went under this line in 14/20 and 5 of the 6 cases they went over were at home. The only away game they went over was with 6 shots on target at Paraguay. Morocco opponents are 19/20 under 5.5. Obviously Brazil is stronger than most of these teams but Morocco is not worse than most of the South American teams against which Brazil couldn't cover 5.5. It's also going to be a long tournament so a tactical draw will be in both teams plans - with a draw Brazil will just need to outscore Morocco against Haiti and Scotland to secure the 1st place which seems very doable. | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-06-12 | World Cup | Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Betano are offering significantly higher odds for this line compared to Bet365 at 1.50 and Altenar bookies at 1.61. Eustaqio averaged 2.4 fouls per game during Copa America 2 years ago, covering this line in 3/5. In CONCACAF Nations League he averaged 1.3 fouls per game. Against a team like Bosnia that commits a lot of fouls and him playing in central midfield will mean that he'll get involved in more physical contact than usual. The referee Facundo Tello is also not bad for fouls averaging 24+ fouls per game | 1.9 | WON | +0.90 |
| 2026-06-12 | World Cup | South Korea vs Czechia | Krejčí has covered this line 13/14 of his last official national team games. The only case where he didn't cover was away at Gibraltar. Of course we need to account that in the last 2 playoff games against Ireland and Denmark he played 120 minutes so it could be that some of the fouls came in extra time. But even if that's the case and he's actually 11/14 still very impressive numbers. Czech's are amongst the most physical teams averaging 14.6 fouls per game and expectedly the line for them were inflated. But I still think that the Krejčí line has value. Amin Mohammed from Egypt is refereeing, sparse foul data for him, but he's averaging 22-23 fouls per game in the African National team competitions. 1.80 at Bet365 | 1.9 | WON | +0.90 |
| 2026-05-30 | Champions League | PSG vs Arsenal | Betano has the same line at 1.98 so 2.25 at Winbet looks tempting. It's been a great season for Arsenal reaching the CL final for the first time in 20 years and winning the Premier League after an even longer break. But we have to admit that Arsenal had an easier path during the CL knockout phase. And they were able to surpass 4.5 shots on target only once during the knockout phase - at home against Bayer Leverkusen. Arsenal also allowed a very low number of shots on target in these games but PSG is on a different level than the teams Arsenal faced so far | 2.25 | WON | +1.25 |
| 2026-05-29 | Efbet Liga | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad vs PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Europa Conference League playoff game. We are not getting 1.90 for Loko again as we did in the Cup final but 1.70 still represents some value. Ludogorec home games are 6/10 under this line and Loko away is 6/10 under as well. Ludogorec should dominate the possession of the ball at least until they manage to take the lead. Loko is near the bottom of the table in terms of corners this season | 1.7 | WON | +0.70 |
| 2026-05-27 | Europa Conference League | Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano | The line is set at 25.5 at Betano and I think that the 23.5 here is too low for a European Cup final - the line looks like it's set purely based on the team's averages. Rayo are averaging 13.5 fouls per game in Primera while Palace are with 10.5 in the Premier League. Maurizio Mariani is refereeing who's averaging 25.09 in 33 games in Serie A. | 1.8 | WON | +0.80 |
| 2026-05-25 | Efbet Liga | PFC Ludogorets Razgrad vs PFC CSKA Sofia | I never bet cards or fouls before the referee is announced but this time I'm making an exception as this line looks really wrong. CSKA Sofia won the Cup final a few days ago and qualified for Europa League, this game doesn't have much value for them. Ludogorets has a chance to avoid the European spot playoff only if Levski wins away at CSKA 1948 which is not so likely as Levski have nothing to play for and probably some of their best players will be on vacation. So Ludogorec needs to think about the playoff and avoid cards. Even with the craziest referees this should stay under 7.5 | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-05-25 | Efbet Liga | CSKA 1948 vs Levski | CSKA 1948 needs at least a draw to secure the 2nd place and qualify directly to Europa Conference League and avoid the playoff game. Levski plays for nothing and most likely will let some of its players go on vacation early, especially the foreigners. | 1.82 | VOID | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | Efbet Liga | Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Plovdiv | Loko lost the Cup final on penalties but despite the disappointment and fatigue there is more than enough time to recover until Monday. Odds for home win started at 4 which was absurd as Loko won't just go and lose against their city rival at home. On top of that they still have chances for the 5th place and a playoff spot if they manage to win this one and Cherno more loses to Arda. | 1.75 | WON | +0.75 |
| 2026-05-24 | Serie A | Hellas Verona vs AS Roma | Must win for Roma agains the already relegated Verona if they want to keep their place in the Top 4. Roma has covered this line in 8 out of their last 10 away games, Verona opponents are 6/10 over this line when visiting them. Away teams are 16/20 over this line in the last 20 games of referee Sozza | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | Premier League | Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton FC | Tottenham needs at least a draw to avoid relegation no matter what happens in the West Ham game. Everton is safe in mid-table. Tottenham home games are 7 out of 9 over this line. Everton away games are 4/10 over the line. Michael Oliver is refereeing - he's 7/10 over the line and 11/20. Knowing the spirit over the Premier League the points shouldn't come so easy for Tottenham as they would in some other leagues | 1.93 | WON | +0.93 |
| 2026-05-24 | Premier League | Sunderland vs Chelsea FC | Sunderland need to win in order to have a chance for a European spot and they also need to hope that Brentford won't need away at Liverpool. Chelsea also needs to win if they don't want to depend on the outcome of Liverpool - Brentford. Sunderland is 5/10 against this line, Chelsea away - 5/9. Chris Kavanagh is refereeing - he's 7/10 and 12/20 over this line. | 1.8 | WON | +0.80 |
| 2026-05-23 | LaLiga | Girona FC vs Elche CF | The line opened at 28.5 yesterday and dropped by 2 and it's rarely a good idea to bet against the market movement. Still, I'm going to do it for this game as I believe now the line is too low - Girona at home - 5/9 over 26.5, Elche away - 7/10 over 26.5. The main obstacle is the referee Hernandez - only 4/10 and 6/20 over the line but this should be outweighed by the importance of this game. | 1.93 | WON | +0.93 |
| 2026-05-23 | LaLiga | Girona FC vs Elche CF | Already mentioned about the importance of this game in my other pick. Expectedly card and foul lines opened very high but despite this odds already started dropping. I still like Elche Over 3.5 Cards as they are the team that will start the game with an advantage to defend. Elche are averaging 3.1 cards in their last 10 away games and the referee Hernandez is averaging 3.8 cards for away teams in his last 10. Obviously this is the most important game of the season so averages should get exceeded. | 1.95 | WON | +0.95 |
| 2026-05-23 | LaLiga | Girona FC vs Elche CF | Girona needs to win against Elche who are 2 points ahead of them in order to stay in LaLiga. Girona played a great game in their last home game against Real Sociedad - 29 shots for them - and they were unlucky not to win, conceding the only goal from a corner kick. If Girona manage to deliver the same type of performance they will win this one | 1.8 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bulgarian Cup | Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia | Cup final. Loko is leading the league table with 3.05 card points per game. As mentioned in my other picks for this game - this is practically a home game for CSKA Sofia. Loko will prefer to turn the game in a physical battle, without giving much space to their opponents. | 1.93 | WON | +0.93 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bulgarian Cup | Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia | Cup Final. Boosted odds - standard odds at 1.85 are also good. Obviously you can bet Loko Under 43.5% at 1.85 as well. It looks like this line was lazily set based just on the result of the last league game in Sofia between these teams - 56:44 then. But if you look further back you will see that CSKA Sofia has covered 56.5 in all of the previous 7 league games played in Sofia going back to 2018. Even if you look at games played in Plovdiv you will see that the possession is not much different. | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bulgarian Cup | Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia | Bulgarian Cup final - I'm surprised to see such high odds - Loko are 13th in terms of corners with 3.67 per game and 1.85 in the first half. This is practically a home game for CSKA Sofia as they've been playing at the National stadium for the last 2.5 years. Loko has covered this line only in 1 out of their last 4 visits at CSKA Sofia. The 2 teams played a Cup final at this stadium 6 years ago and Loko had 0 corners back then. Loko's strategy will be to defend solidly and use opportunities for counter-attacks. | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | Premier League | Arsenal vs Burnley | The line is currently 17.5 at Betano which is a very big difference. Our model was flagging even 17.5 as big value and obviously 20.5 gives us an even bigger edge. Arsenal home games are 5/10 under this line and Burnley away games are 4/10 under 20.5 The referee Paul Tierney averages 20.9 fouls in his last 20 games and has stayed under this line in 7 of them. Still, this game is expected to be one-sided which is always good for under fouls | 2 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | Efbet Liga | Dobrudzha vs Botev Vratsa | Must win for Dobrudzha if they want to keep their hopes for staying at the top level alive. Botev are already safe and plays for nothing. The odds for Dobrudzha winning rose from 1.6 back to 1.9 which means that some people believe that Botev won't go and lose easily (maybe speculation about Botev trying to help some of the other teams in the relegation battle?). Anyway Botev are coming without 2 important suspended players in their attack - Martin Petkov and Radoslav Tsonev. Dobrudzha had 14:0 corners against Beroe last week and 8:3 against Loko Sofia. Botev Vraca lost 7 of their last 9 away games on the -1.5 corner handicap. | 1.83 | WON | +0.83 |
| 2026-05-17 | Serie A | Sassuolo vs Lecce | Sassuolo are safe in mid-table and their games in general don't have a lot fouls. Their home games are 4/8 over 25.5. But Lecce are involved in the relegation battle and need points. Their away games are averaging 27.3 in the last 10 and they have covered this line in 7 out of the last 8 away. The referee La Penna also gives quite a lot of fouls - covering this line in 12 out of his last 20 and 7 out of his last 10. | 1.85 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | LaLiga | Levante vs Mallorca | Both teams sit in the relegation zone and losing this game might mean minimising their survival hopes. Levante plays Betis away in the last round (Betis are locked in the 5th place) while Mallorca faces the relegated Oviedo at home. Still, relying on the last game with so many teams involved in the relegation battle is very risky, so I expect both teams. to fight in this one. Levante has covered this line in 5/7 of their home games Mallorca has covered in their last 3 away. Obviously the more recent games are more similar to this one - desperate relegation battles. The referee Alberola averages 26.1 fouls in his last 20 and has covered in his last 2 - similar relegation battles - Sevilla - Espanyol and Alaves - Mallorca | 1.8 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | LaLiga | Sevilla vs Real Madrid | Sevilla home games are 9/10 under this line, Real Madrid is 9/10 under the line away from home. After 3 straight wins Sevilla is out of the danger zone, Real with nothing to play for. | 1.88 | WON | +0.88 |
| 2026-05-17 | Premier League | Wolves vs Fulham | Wolverhampton are 7/10 under this line at home, Fulham opponents are 10/10 under this line when the team plays away. In fact only Liverpool managed to reach 10 fouls against Fulham, no one else reached even 9. Wolves are relegated, Fulham with not much to play for as well. | 1.8 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | Serie A | Como vs Parma | Como is 6/10 under this line at home, Parma opponents are 7/10 under this line when the team plays away. Zufferli refereeing - home teams are under this line in 14/20 of his games. Parma with nothing to play for. | 1.8 | WON | +0.80 |
| 2026-05-16 | Liga Portugal | Estoril vs Benfica | Estoril opponents are 7/9 under 6.5 when they visit Estoril, Benfica is 8/10 under this line away. Benfica needs a win but they also need Sporting to fail. Estoril with nothing to play for | 1.88 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-16 | Super League | Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia | Asteras home games are 10/10 under this line, Kifisia away is 6/10 under. Kifisia with nothing to play for, Asteras is 4 points above the danger zone with 2 games to go. | 1.82 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-16 | Bundesliga | Borussia Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim | Borussia home games are 6/9 over this line, Hoffenheim away games are 7/9 over the line. The referee Willenborg is 16/20 over this line. Borussia with nothing to play for but Hoffe need to win in the 4th place battle | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-05-14 | LaLiga | Girona vs Real Sociedad | Crazy season in Primera - The difference between Girona - 19th and Sociedad - 8th is just 5 points - 39 vs 44. So very important game for both teams. The referee M. Sesma is 13/18 over this line with an average of 27.2 per game. Girona home games 4/9 over this line, Sociedad away - 6/9 over the line. | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-05-14 | Efbet Liga | Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna | It might sound crazy betting under on this game given its importance in the relegation battle but: Septemvri's home games are 6/9 under this line - the only 3 cases where they went over were against Cherno more, CSKA Sofia and Ludogorec. Spartak away games are 7/9 under this line - the 2 cases where they went over were in the derby against Cherno more and away at Loko Plovdiv (the team with the most fouls in the league). The 2 teams played at this stadium a month ago and the game ended with 22 fouls (9:13). The referee Mariyan Grebencharski is 18/20 under this line. Spartak will be missing their striker - Georg Stojanovski - 2nd in the team in both fouls committed and suffered - 32 and 42 respectively. They will be also missing Tsvetoslav Marinov - 3rd in fouls suffered - 36. Given the stakes of the game I expect both teams to start carefully, with a slow tempo. Spartak should be happy with a draw here. | 1.85 | WON | +0.43 |
| 2026-05-13 | Efbet Liga | Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia | Levski celebrated winning the title a few days ago after a home game against Ludogorec. I expected Ludogorec to be much more aggressive as they still need points to secure a Conference league spot for next season. They still won but after a lucky late goal. Now Levski are making the long trip to Razgrad and apart from the title celebrations behind them they have a derby against CSKA Sofia just 72 hours after this one. I expect them to rotate a lot in this game as most players are already thinking about the summer vacation and the last game they will put effort this season will be the Sofia derby, not this one. Ludogorec is obviously in bad form and they might rotate as well, but they still need points and they already managed to win 4 times against Levski in 2026 (all by 1:0) | 1.87 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | Efbet Liga | CSKA Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia | The 2 teams played a few days ago and expectedly 3 important CSKA Sofia players (Eto'o, Godoy, Pereira) got deliberate yellow cards so they don't miss the Cup final next Wednesday. 2 other (Jordao and Martino) got yellow cards in the previous game for similar reasons and they will be serving the 2nd game of their 2-game suspension. Just 72 hours after this game CSKA Sofia faces Levski in a derby that will be overshadowed by the Cup final a few days later so I expect a less aggressive, more pragmatic approach to this one. CSKA Sofia is 8/10 under 2.5 in their last 10 home games and CSKA 1948 opponents are 8/10 when the team travels. The Referee Martin Velikov averages 3.3 card points in his last 10 games and the home teams are 8/10 under 2.5 | 1.93 | WON | +0.93 |
| 2026-05-12 | Efbet Liga | Botev Plovdiv vs Arda | The season is practically over for these 2 teams - Botev have no chances for the 5th place and Arda's chances are very slim. Botev are 5/9 at home against this line, Arda are 5/10 away. The referee Todor Kirov is 6/9 under 1.5. The good pitch at Botev's stadium should also help | 1.82 | WON | +0.82 |
| 2026-05-12 | Efbet Liga | Cherno More vs Lok. Plovdiv | Live - Ivaylo Ivanov got a yellow card which is his 9th. If he doesn't get a 2nd yellow red card today he will get a 2-game suspension and miss the Cup final. Most bookmakers don't show this yellow card but it was shown on TV and also is tracked on most stats platforms | 4.9 | WON | +7.80 |
| 2026-05-12 | Efbet Liga | Cherno More vs Lok. Plovdiv | Lokomotiv have 3 players with 4 yellow cards - Pavlov, Chindriș and Martin Atanasov - the first 2 are important players and are quite likely to get a deliberate 5th yellow card so they are available to play in the Cup final. They also have 2 players with 8 cards - Cova and Ivaylo Ivanov - if one of them gets a yellow he'll need to get a 2nd yellow red card so they avoid missing the Cup final. I'm quite split here between taking this relatively high line at 2.30 or taking the Most Cards / Loko -0.5 Card Handicap at 1.80. Ultimately I'm going for the higher odds where my bet won't depend on Cherno more players behaviour | 2.3 | WON | +1.30 |
| 2026-05-11 | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave vs Sporting CP | Sporting is 7/10 under this line when playing away from home. Rio Ave opponents are 9/10 under this line when visiting them. | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-05-10 | Ligue 1 | Monaco vs Lille | Monaco home games are 7/9 under this line, Lille away is 7/10 under 25.5. Clement Turpin is 16/20 under this line | 1.78 | WON | +0.78 |
| 2026-05-10 | Efbet Liga | Dobrudzha vs Beroe | Boosted odds - standard ones at 1.80 are also good. Beroe were denied a license for the new season a few days ago and unless they win an appeal next week (which almost never happens) they will get relegated automatically. Obviously odds for Dobrudzha dropped a lot but they recovered a bit meaning that sharp bettors believe that Beroe won't give up without a fight. Even if Beroe get automatically relegated Dobrudzha will still be involved in a relegation battle with Spartak and Septemvri. Beroe are actually in a good form - 8 points in the last 4 games and Dobrudzha's last win was 2 months ago again at home against Beroe. Interestingly the referee is also the same - Zhelezov - so same teams, same stadium, same referee - 2 months ago - 31 fouls when Beroe was playing with a red card from the first minutes of the game. Dobrudzha games are 5/10 at home against this line, Beroe is only 2/9 away against the line and Zhelezov is only 4/10. So the stats are not so much in favour but I'm trusting the recent game with the same referee + this one should be more important, at least for Dobrudzha. | 1.9 | WON | +0.90 |
| 2026-05-10 | Super League | Volos vs Levadiakos | Volos games are 6/10 under when playing at home, Levadiakos is 7/10 under when playing away from home. A pretty high line for a relegation battle. | 2.02 | WON | +1.02 |
| 2026-05-09 | Serie A | Lecce vs Juventus | Our model predicts a 72% probability for this one with an expected outcome of 14.2 fouls for Juve. Colombo is refereeing - 27.9 fouls per game for him in his last 20 games. Lecce opponents are averaging 17.1 fouls when visiting them, Juve is averaging 11.2 away. Lecce opponents have covered this 7/9 when visiting them and Juve has covered 6/9 away | 1.83 | WON | +0.83 |
| 2026-05-09 | Efbet Liga | Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets | Levski secured the title in the last round so in this game they will get the trophy in front of a full stadium. They might have nothing to play for but Ludogorec still haven't secured their place in Europe so they need points. The match total is set too low at 4.5 with a referee like Ventsislav Mitrev who's averaging 5.5 card points in his last 20 games. Ludogorec is averaging 2.2 card points in their last 10 games away from home. Some of their players look angry after a disappointing season and in front of a hostile crowd I prefer their line instead of the total. | 2.25 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli | This line opened at 22.5 in the morning, then dropped to 21.5, but now even at 20.5 our model predicts a 80.1% probability with an expected outcome of 16.5. Obviously the value was even bigger at the higher lines but I waited for too long for other lines to be posted. Most probably the decisive game for St Pauli would be in the last round next week when they face. Wolfsburg at home - if Wolfsburg don't win against Bayern, a win in that game could guarantee St Pauli a playoff spot. So St Pauli might have their minds on that game without risking everything against a stronger opponent like RB. RB at home - 6/10 under 20.5, St Pauli away - 9/10. The referee Brandt is 10/20 under the line with an average of 20.8 | 1.82 | WON | +0.82 |
| 2026-05-08 | SuperLiga | UTA Arad vs Csikszereda | V. Flueran refereeing - you rarely see a referee that's 19 out of 20 Under 4.5. Both teams stats - UTA - 7/10 Under 4.5 at home, Csikszereda 5/10 - under away. It's also not a life or death game for both teams. | 1.82 | WON | +0.82 |
| 2026-05-08 | Efbet Liga | Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda | Player Card · Match · Catalin Itu · Over 0.5 | 3 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Efbet Liga | Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda | Player Card · Match · Ivaylo Ivanov · Over 0.5 | 3.6 | LOST | -0.50 |
| 2026-05-06 | Efbet Liga | Spartak Varna vs Dobrudzha | Boosted odds - standard ones at 1.80 are also good. Important game between teams involved in the relegation battle. We are not getting a good referee for fouls and cards here as Lyubomirov has covered this line only in 3 out his last 10. But the importance of the game and the bad pitch should help here. The 2 teams played on the same stadium a month ago in a game that had 29 (17:12) fouls. | 1.9 | WON | +0.90 |
| 2026-05-03 | Serie A | Inter vs Parma | Our model predicts 80.3% for this one staying under with an expected total fouls at 20.3. Inter are confidently 1st while Parma are safe in mid-table. Inter home games under this line - 7 out of the last 9. Parma away games under this line - 7 out of the last 10. The main problem could be the referee Bonacina who's stayed under this line only in 5 out of his last 14 games. | 1.93 | WON | +0.93 |
| 2026-05-03 | Liga Portugal | Braga vs Estoril | Our model predicts 64.3% probability for this line with an expected shots on target at 7.9. Braga played Frankfurt yesterday in EL 1/2 final 1st leg and will travel to Germany next week. Estoril have nothing to play for. 6 out of the last 9 Braga home games have stayed under this line and 7 out of the last 10 Estoril away games. | 2.07 | WON | +1.07 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | Player Card · Match · A. Martino · Over 0.5 | 2.66 | WON | +0.83 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | Player Card · Match · James Eto'o · Over 0.5 | 3 | LOST | -0.50 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | Player Card · Match · B. Jordao · Over 0.5 | 2.5 | WON | +0.75 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | These 2 teams played a Cup 1/2 final 2nd leg on the same stadium a few days ago which was surprisingly peaceful - only 6 cards (2 of them at the end for time wasting) in a game that was supposed to be the most important for both teams for the entire season. And the referee then Piskov has a much higher card average than Grebencharski who's refereeing this one. Grebencharski managed to complete a "Sofia eternal derby" with only 2 cards a few weeks ago - this was the lowest card number for almost 40 years in such a game. After qualifying for the final CSKA Sofia doesn't care that much whether they finish 2nd or 4th - all they need is to win the Cup against Loko Plovdiv. Ludogorec obviously need to be in the top 3 in order to play in Europe. But even if both teams really want to make sure they are in the league top 3 there are still 4 games to go after this one and one of them is another direct game between them in Razgrad. So this game shouldn't be so decisive. Grebencharski averages 1.2 cards in the 1st half in his last 10 games with a Fouls/Card ratio of 8.3 | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-05-03 | Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam vs G.A. Eagles | Match · Fouls · Total · Over 19.5 MATCH FOULS_COMMITTED 19.5 | 1.95 | WON | +0.48 |
| 2026-05-03 | Bundesliga | St. Pauli vs Mainz | Our model predicts 77.7% for this one staying under. St. Pauli last home games - 6 out of 9 under this line. Mainz last 10 away - 8 out of 10 under this line. The referee Gerach has stayed under this line in 12 out of his last 20 | 1.82 | WON | +0.82 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | Botev Plovdiv vs Lok. Plovdiv | Player Card · Match · Todor Pavlov · Over 0.5 | 3.4 | LOST | -0.50 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | Botev Plovdiv vs Lok. Plovdiv | Player Card · Match · I. Ivanov · Over 0.5 | 3.6 | LOST | -0.50 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | Botev Plovdiv vs Lok. Plovdiv | Player Card · Match · Catalin Itu · Over 0.5 | 3 | LOST | -0.50 |
| 2026-05-03 | Efbet Liga | Botev Plovdiv vs Lok. Plovdiv | After the previous Plovdiv derby had only 2 cards this time we are getting one of the referees with the highest card averages - Mitrev averages 5.3 in his last 20 games. Botev still have really good chances for the 5th spot and even though Loko qualified for the Cup final they are facing CSKA Sofia there so they will still try to keep their chances for the 5th place as a back up. | 1.98 | WON | +0.98 |
| 2026-05-03 | Eredivisie | Zwolle vs Heracles | Match · Fouls · Total · Over 22.5 MATCH FOULS_COMMITTED 22.5 | 1.85 | WON | +0.43 |
| 2026-05-03 | Eredivisie | Sittard vs Feyenoord | Our model predicts 75.3% probability for Fortuna covering this line. Fortuna have covered this line in 7 out their last 10 home games. Feyenoord opponents have covered this line in 8 out of their last 10 away games. | 2.05 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | Serie A | Pisa vs Lecce | Important game for Lecce in the relegation battle. They have covered this line in 7 out of their last 10 away games. Pisa opponents have covered this line in 6 out of the last 9 Pisa home games. The referee Guida averages 13.1 fouls for the away teams in his last 20 games | 1.8 | WON | +0.80 |
| 2026-04-30 | Bulgarian Cup | Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda | Cup 1/2 final, 2nd leg. Loko won the 1st leg 4:0 after some terrible mistakes by Arda in the 2nd half. It's obvious that everything is decided in this one and I don't think both teams will risk injuries and cards. Loko have a city derby against Botev over the weekend and Arda have a home game against Cherno more where they still have chances for the 5th place which is another path to Europe. Lyubomirov is refereeing who prefers to allow the play to flow and his league card average is 4.78 in his last 18 games. | 1.95 | WON | +0.95 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bulgarian Cup | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | I usually avoid playing both fouls and cards on the same game but in this case I'll break that rule but these teams have covered 6.5 in 6 out their last 8 head-to-head games. This game has higher stakes than most of their usual meetings and the referee Georgi Davidov is not amongst the referees with the lowest card averages - 5.29 card points per game in his last 24 games, 4.90 Fouls to Card ratio | 1.75 | LOST | -1.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bulgarian Cup | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | Small stake, mostly for fun - boosted odds but normal odds at 71 are also good. This is one of the games where we might see everything - a Red Card seems quite likely, given how VAR awards penalties for handball we might see one as well, Own Goals of course are mostly luck | 91 | LOST | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bulgarian Cup | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | Boosted odds - standard odds at 1.80 are also good. After losing the 1st leg 1:2 at home and losing their league title hopes this is the last chance for Ludogorec to win something this season. They need to attack and Stanic has been clearly been their best player the whole season. Being fouled once looks automatic in such a game so hopefully we only need the shot on target - league stats for Stanic - 1.0 shot on target per game and fouled 1.7 targets per game. | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bulgarian Cup | CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets | Boosted odds - standard odds at 1.85 are also good. Cup 1/2 final, 2nd leg - CSKA Sofia won the first one 2:1 in Razgrad. This is clearly the most important game for both teams so far this season - Ludogorec lost their title hopes after a series of bad results and CSKA Sofia fielded some reserves in the league derby against Levski and lost that one. Lots of signs that both teams are betting everything on reaching the Cup final against Loko Plovdiv. This line got covered in the first game with a referee that usually gives less fouls (Kristiyan Kolev - 21.45). Georgi Davidov is refereeing this one - 24.29 in his last 24 games in the league. I expect a lot of aggression and unless the game is heading towards Extra time from from the 60th minute this line should get covered | 2 | WON | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | LaLiga | Espanyol vs Levante | Missed 25.5 for a few minutes, but still taking this. Both teams are still involved in the relegation battle - a win could almost guarantee Espanyol's safety while getting points is crucial for Levante as they are currently 3 points below safety. Last 10 games for Espanyol have averaged 28.3 fouls while Levante games have averaged 27.7 fouls. Mateo Busquets is refereeing - not an ideal option for fouls - 24.6 fouls on average in his last 20 Primera games | 1.8 | WON | +0.80 |
| 2026-04-26 | Super Lig | Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce | Decisive big derby with 4 rounds to go - Galatasaray leads 4 points and realistically only a win will help Fenerbahce in this one to keep their title hopes. If you look at their latest H2H matches you'll see that they easily reach 7 cards even in matches played earlier in the season and ones that end up as draws. Today the game is more important than usual. Yasin Kol is refereeing - 6.1 card points per game in his last 20 Super Lig games and he has a really low Fouls/Card Ratio with 4.8. | 2.05 | WON | +1.05 |