Picks

Calvin Miller Over 1.5 Shots@ 2.071u

1.28 at Bet365, huge difference. Miller is 13/19 covering this line in games where started from the 1st minute. Hearts have an away game vs Benfica next Thursday but this game is on Saturday, it's also the 1st round of the league, so hopefully Miller will get enough playing time.

Shots · Match · Motherwell · Over 11.5@ 1.931u

Motherwell is 14/20 covering this line away from home, their last away game was exactly at Hibernian where they had 14 shots in May. Hibernian's opponents are 9/20 when facing them at their ground. Both teams already started their European campaign and managed to qualify for the next round. Motherwell decided things early in the 2nd leg while Hibernian had to be careful until the last minutes vs Malisheva, despite leading 4:0 at some point, they had lost the 1st leg 2:0 and at 4:1 at the end the guests were just 1 goal away from sending the game to Extra Time. Both teams having 2 official games already should mean that they are further ahead with their preparations for the new season and their attacks should work better.

Shots · Match · Total · Under 27.5@ 1.951u

Celtic home games are 14/20 under 27.5, and Dundee FC away games are also 14/20 under this line. This being the 1st round of the season with no official games for Celtic yet should mean that their attack does not work that well together yet.

Killian Ludewig Over 0.5 Shots@ 3.101u

1.40 at Winbet, so huge difference. Ludewig has covered this line in 7/9 games where he played at least 45 minutes. Obviously it depends whether he'll play like a right midfielder like he did vs Arges or like a right back like he did vs Dinamo but 3+ odds are still worth taking. Universitatea were eliminated by Levski in a dramatic game but are still continuing in Europa League. After the heavy loss vs Dinamo probably they won't rotate as much but we could still see some rotation.

David Irimia Over 0.5 Shots@ 2.221u

Irimia is 8/15 covering this line when playing at least 45 minutes. He was covering pretty consistently last autumn when playing for his old club Metaloglobus but in the spring had less playing time. We are yet to see how much he would be used at Dinamo (didn't play vs Petrolul, had 80 minutes vs Universitatea Craiova)

Corners · Match · CSKA Sofia · Over 5.5@ 1.671u

CSKA Sofia started the season with double digit corners in both games - 11 vs Slavia in a 0:0 draw and 17 vs Botev in a difficult 2:1 win in the last minutes. They will rotate again and even if they win in an easier manner against Dunav this line still feels a bit low. Dunav conceded 9 corners vs Levski and 5 vs Ludogorec where in both cases they conceded relatively early goals (20-30th minute).

Offsides · Match · Total · Under 3.5@ 1.851u

Bad refereeing was part of the reasons a similar bet lost in the Loko Sofia - Levski game (1st offside of the game was actually covered by more than a meter by a defender, then in the 2nd half the same assistant gave one more suspicious offside). Anyway, this time the stats data is even more convincing - 19/20 Levski home games are under 3/5 and 16/20 of Septemvri away games are under. Reasons are pretty simple - opponents usually defend deep against Levski and Levski's defensive line is usually in the opponents half - both things help prevent offsides both ways. Levski will obviously rotate again but Septemvri is a weaker opponent than Loko Sofia and this is a home game.

Fouls · Match · Total · Over 24.5@ 2.001u

Boosted odds, standard odds at 1.85 are also ok. I'm going against the model here but this is considered kind of a derby and we are getting Ventsislav Mitrev as a referee who's averaging 24.3 fouls in his last 20 games. The last game at this stadium between these teams ended with 28 (14:14) fouls despite the fact that it was refereed by Stanimir Trenchev (one of the referees with the lowest foul averages).

Cards · Match · Total · Under 4.5@ 2.151u

Same odds at Winbet (+ other EGT or Altenar based). Viorel Flueran refereeing - he's games are 19/20 under 4.5 and 20/20 under 5.5. The model gives the same value for both under 4.5 and 5.5 but I prefer the higher odds even if obviously the variance will be a bit higher. Csikszereda home games are 12/19 under 4.5, FCSB away games are 10/19 under. FCSB surprisingly lost 2:3 to Auda in a Europa Conference League game and next Thursday must win in Latvia in order to keep hopes to advance. That game will definitely be on their mind and we might see some rotations.

Tudor Baluta Over 1.5 Shots@ 2.201u

1.50 at Betano. Baluta starts this game as Universitatea are making some rotations before the game with Levski. Baluta has 33 shots in the last 20 games but in 2 of them he didn't play at all and he didn't start any of the last 7. 20 of his shots are outside the box. On average he makes a shot every 32 minutes which leads to almost 3 shots per 90 minutes. He's 6/10 covering this line in games where he played at least 60 minutes. The model flags as higher value Over 0.5 shots on target at 3.20 but I prefer this option

Cards · Match · Spartak Varna · Over 2.5@ 1.701u

Derby of Varna, Dragomir Draganov is refereeing - averaging 3.5 card points per game - so we are seeing relatively low lines this type of derby. But the thing is Draganov already refereed this derby in March 2025 (again at Ticha) and the game had 4 yellows by the 31st minute and 2nd yellow red card by the 37th minute. It's hard to imagine Spartak leaving Ticha with less than 3 yellows. This spring they had a terrible stretch of 7 red cards between February 7th and April 24th. Spartak is 13/20 covering 2.5 and 11/19 covering it in away games only. Cherno more's opponents at Ticha have covered this line in 11/20.

Offsides · Match · Total · Under 2.5@ 2.101u

Loko Sofia's games are 14/20 under 2.5 offsides and Levski's games are 16/20 under. If we look only at Loko at home and Levski away then the numbers are 9/20 and 13/20 and Levski is in a streak of 11 straight games which ended with under 2.5 offsides. What explains these numbers - Levski controls the ball, their opponents defend deep without many chances to attack and these things lead to a smaller number of offsides. Levski will obviously rotate because of the very important Champions League away game at Universitatea Craiova but I still expect them to control the ball

Shots · Match · Total · Under 25.5@ 1.831u

Universitatea away games are 15/20 under 25.5 and they have a very important Champions League 2nd leg vs Levski. Dinamo home games are only 8/20 under but the overall total (home + away) numbers for both teams are 10/20 and 15/20 respectively. The model estimates the fair odds at 1.47.

Shots on Target · Match · FC Arges · Under 4.5@ 1.721u

Arges are 14/19 under this line at home, Petrolul opponents are 11/20 under 4.5. The model puts the fair odds at 1.44 so this has +11.2% value. Positive start for Petrolul with a 1:0 win over Dinamo, Arges lost 2:0 vs FCSB.

Shots · Match · FC Botosani · Over 12.5@ 1.881u

Botosani is 14/19 over 12.5 shots at home, Rapid's opponents facing them at home are 12/19 over. The model estimates the fair odds at 1.59 giving +9.7% value.